Democrat Supermajority Predicted In Oregon Legislature By Forecaster

The national analysis group Cnalysis- the sole forecaster of U.S. legislative elections, predicted an 18-11 split in the Oregon Senate in favor of the Democrats and a 39-21 Democratic majority in the state House.  Democrats currently have 17 Senate seats and 35 in the House.

More detail on what Cnalysis predicts:

Election Prediction For Oregon Senate

Because of the seats being vacated, Republicans conceded months ago that their chances of taking the majority in the Senate are effectively zero.

They have concentrated on defending two districts held by Republicans and hope to flip a Democratic seat in east Multnomah County. Cnalysis sees just two of the state’s Senate races as competitive which both feature incumbent senators seeking reelection:

The 5th District along the central coast: Sen. Dick Anderson, R-Lincoln City- one of only three Republican Senate incumbents allowed to run for reelection after most of his caucus were disqualified from serving subsequent terms for skipping floor sessions for six weeks in 2023, has a slight advantage following Donald Trump’s 3 points win in 2016 and 2020. In 2022, Republican gubernatorial nominee Christine Drazan won by almost 7 points.

The 25th District in east Multnomah County: Sen. Chris Gorsek, D-Troutdale, got better odds in the forecast after winning by almost 4 points in the 2020 race. The 2021 redistricting didn’t change district boundaries much but Republicans see hope in 2022 results despite the forecast that Gorsek will very likely prevail over Republican challenger Raymond Love.

Central Oregon’s 27th Senate District: Former Senate Republican leader Tim Knopp is disqualified from running again and Bend City Councilor Anthony Broadman (D) will face Redmond School Board chair Michael Summers. Bend and Redmond have moved to the left in recent years, as indicated by Kotek’s win by more than 8 points in 2022. The forecast sees the district as solidly Democratic.

Election Prediction For Oregon House

All 60 House seats are up for election, where the four closest predicted races- all with Republican incumbents, were forecasted to tilt toward Democrats:

Salem-based 21st House District (incumbent Rep. Kevin Mannix): While the race was incorrectly predicted by Cnalysis in 2022, the outcome was correct. Democrats will be hoping to unseat him this year with a well-known Salem city councilor, Virginia Stapleton.

Woodburn-based 22nd District (incumbent Rep. Tracy Cramer): Facing Democrat Lesly Munoz, a consultant for the Oregon Education Association,  R-Gervais may be hoping to retain the Democratic-held seat that includes farming communities in north Marion County that she managed to flip last time.

32nd District along the northwest coast (incumbent Rep. Cyrus Javadi):  In the last race, Javadi, R-Tillamook beat Democrat Logan Laity by 2.5 percentage points and less than 850 votes in the coastal 32nd District but a work relocation saw Laity withdraw and was replaced by Astoria City Councilor Andy Davis.

52nd District in the Columbia River Gorge (incumbent House Minority Leader Jeff Helfrich): Drug and alcohol prevention specialist Nick Walden Poublon is challenging Helfrich who won by 5 points in 2022.  The district voted blue for president in 2016 and 2020 but later voted for Drazan.

Any attempts to create new taxes or raise existing ones need a supermajority of 18 votes in the Senate and 36 in the House. Democratic leaders will be seeking bigger margins to make room to negotiate a new transportation funding package in the 2025 session.