Oregon Crime Rate Down In Line With FBI Stats: Political Rhetoric Capitalizes On Fear

Oregon Crime Statistics

Using information received from 77% or almost 12,000 law enforcement agencies nationally, the FBI’s statistics indicate violent crime in 2024 has dropped by 15% as compared with the first quarter of 2023, showing:

Murder: 26.4% decrease.
Rapes: 25.7% decrease.
Robberies17.8% decrease.
Aggravated assaults: 12.5% decrease.
Reported property crimes: 15.1% decrease.

Although the FBI’s latest preliminary report is unaudited as law enforcement agencies will still refine their figures throughout the year, not every law enforcement agency participates in the FBI’s crime reporting program, and not every crime is reported. Despite its limitations, some crime data experts and criminologists say the data is reliable.

Aligning with the FBI statistics, the Major Cities Chiefs Association released a report in May showing first-quarter data from their survey of 68 major metropolitan police departments. Compared with the previous year, it indicates a 17% drop in murders.

The Oregon government figures also show an overall decrease in crimes in 2023 (based on data received from 215 of the 236 law enforcement agencies who participated) compared with 2022 as a drop of over 6% as follows:

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Public Perception Of Crime

Notwithstanding the official statistics, the widespread public perception is that crime is going up, a perception reinforced by Donald Trump, the presumptive Republican presidential nominee, as well as by many other GOP candidates. The issue may still be prominent in November’s election.

Late last year, a Gallup poll indicated that 63% of participants see the crime problem in the U.S. as either extremely or very serious, the highest percentage since the question was first asked by Gallup in 2000. Despite this, there are criminologists who have cautioned that the data should be seen from the perspective of individual cities and neighborhoods.

A criminology, law, and society professor at UCLA, Charis Kubrin, said that while this looks good for the nation as a whole, there are cities that are likely to have experienced increases that bucked the trend.

With crime and crime statistics heavily skewed by media coverage focussing mainly on when crimes are committed and the misleading political rhetoric around crimes, the average American’s understanding may be different from criminologists and crime data experts.

Politicians’ Statements About Crime

Calling the FBI data showing a decline in crime “fake numbers” in May, Trump then erroneously claimed in June the FBI’s crime statistics exclude 30% of cities. This may have been a reference to some departments not filing data in 2021 when the FBI switched data reporting systems Experts say the overall numbers remain valid.

Other election news: 10 Oregon Republican Senators Who Walked Out Are Not Eligible For Reelection

Also using crime statistics for political gain, in a May campaign email from President Biden indicated that during his presidency, Trump “oversaw the largest increase in murder in U.S. history.” The U.S. saw the biggest rise in murders in a year in 2020, but this was in the context of the social upheaval following George Floyd’s murder by a Minneapolis police officer and the COVID-19 pandemic.

Gardner said that people tend to cling to stories that resonate more emotionally rather than relying on statistics. As statistics can feel impersonal, a story framed to make voters feel they or their families- unless they vote for a specific politician, may fall victim to similar crimes, according to Gardner, is a common but highly effective tactic.

He said despite distorting public perception of crime, using fear as a motivator can drive people to the polls.