Post-Pandemic Revenues Fuel Highest-Ever Tax Kick Back for Oregonians

A post-pandemic revenue windfall of $5.6 billion translates into the highest kickback in history of Oregon 2023 taxpayers.

Revenue was $5.6 billion higher than predictions by state economists of a post-pandemic recession that lawmakers used to forecast the 2023-25 budget.

The billion-dollar windfall for businesses and taxpayers will be paid proportionately to their taxation payments.

In 1979, the Legislature approved a 2% kicker law that requires the state to refund taxpayers surplus revenues that exceed forecast revenues by more than 2%.

Previous Predictions Were Overly Conservative

New state economist, Carl Riccadonna says previous predictions were overly conservative, resulting in the largest kicker ever received in 2024 for the 2023 tax year.

The current kicker for the 2025 tax year and payable to taxpayers in 2026 is $1.8 billion. However, this number could fluctuate depending on what revenue the state receives in the next few months.

Riccadonna says he will concentrate on making the most accurate prediction possible when reevaluating changing models.

Political Feedback

A member of the Senate Finance and Revenue Committee, Senator Lynn Findley, R-Vale, described the kicker as ‘the people’s money’ and said it should remain so.

He pointed out that during the 2023-25 biennium state agencies coped with less funds and believes they could continue to do so in the future.

Senate President Rob Wagner, D-Lake Oswego, said while welcoming the positive economic forecast, Oregon would be entering ‘a very tight budget cycle.’ He said critical services had to be maintained and legislators needed to make smart choices to sustain investments and to address the important needs of the state.

Takeaway

Kicker credits totaling $11.8 billion between tax years 2015 to 2025 have been ploughed back to taxpayers, according to economists.